Its military budget is greater than the combined expenditure of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. "On one hand, if China attacked the US homeland, similar to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, the US would respond with war. The area around it would be highly contested and US war reserve stocks in the Pacific are earmarked for US forces that will assist Taiwan not for Taiwan itself. "Australia has been there before. It is for that reason that some commentators, including me, do not think that China is likely to initiate an offensive war in the near future, until it is sure that it has enough mass to win quickly. Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has warned about the serious consequences that could arise from not adequately addressing tensions. "In the past, when I was working in government, we sometimes offered ministers some indication of the possible cost in lives if things went badly in the kind of lower-level commitments that we made in the 1990s. But, his hawkish new boss, Defence Minister Peter Dutton, says war with China should not be discounted. "The mobilisation for all this would take many months and US intelligence would detect it and know in advance what was being planned. He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians "economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear". China is aware of this gap. If that's what they mean, their view should be rejected in favour of Australian sovereignty and parliamentary authorisation.". And doesnt have the necessary reach. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. "China would not seek to deploy land forces to the US (nor Australia for that matter). It can deny the United States control of the air within 300 nautical miles (556km) from China's coast. Chinese strategists see these passages as crucial to their ability to deploy forces beyond the first island chain, analyst Ben Lowsen told The Diplomat. If Australia sleepwalks into a war with China, as many analysts fear is happening right now, then amid our strategic slumber we should at least ask one question: what would war with China mean for Australia? "I cannot conceive that there are any benefits in Australia being at war with China unless the circumstances were so serious as to make the cost in lives and treasury worthwhile. Mock attacks will no longer be fake. India and Pakistan take pains to avoid such escalation. Its military planners already expect these to be overwhelmed by missiles in the opening hours of any conflict. But will it be safer for women? The leaders of both Ukraine and Russia are expected to meet with China's president in the near future. The divergence of the two Taiwan scenarios, a Chinese military attack or an invasion, says a lot about the relative military power of the US and China, itself a barometer of the strength of the two superpowers. So it would be an even match. And I believe he is ready to exploit this with a multipronged campaign to divide Americans and undermine and exhaust their will to engage in a prolonged conflict what Chinas military calls enemy disintegration. In providing for our own defence we ought to be able to make sufficient and good quality plans provided we have the will to do so. The US could also use submarines and stealth aircraft to attack Chinas shipping fleet in the Indian Ocean to cripple its economic lifelines in times of a crisis. And Taiwan sitting neatly between the two offers that opportunity. One accident. It may be possible for the US to operate from bases in northern Australia, though whether overflight rights would be granted by Indonesia is unlikely. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. With that in mind, I sought the views of four of Australia's most experienced military strategists, with 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them,to discuss what joining the US in a war with China could mean for Australians. "The question requires urgent, high-profile debate in parliament and among the wider public. It also allows the US to try to promote the notion it is not"an American war". It depends how it starts. It has been growing by 6-8 per cent each year for the past five years but according to defence intelligence agency Janes, US spending remains miles ahead at $759 billion. All agree, for example, that the United States with or without Australias assistance cannot win a war against China. Admiral Chris Barriemakes the point that its possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australias low population. "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. US fighters can operate out of Guam with adequate air-to-air refuelling support, but the round-trip transit time for a sortie is about six hours.". And all are watching with great interest as the drums of war beat in some quarters regarding a possible war with China. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. Brooking Institutions Michael OHanlon writes that the location of Chinas new fleet of attack submarines could act as a deterrent to US military escalation. The PLAs missile forces are central to Chinas efforts to deter and counter third-party intervention in a regional conflict, a US congressional report concluded this month. "Taiwan doesn't have a Plan B that's the big problem. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. I am convinced that the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them. Who has a better and stronger military, navy, air force, etc? Get a note direct from our foreign correspondents on whats making headlines around the world. The US has launched 615 satellites into space in the last three years, compared to 168 by China, according to Lowy. The national broadcaster carried out the interviews with "four of Australia's most experienced military strategists" China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. "If we joined the fight, or allowed US forces involved to operate from bases here, then there would be a clear chance that Australia would face direct attack from Chinese long-range forces. At the last G20 foreign ministers' meeting, in Bali last summer, Lavrov walked out amid condemnations of Russia's war and its impact on global food and energy costs. "In the history of the 20th century, it took two world wars to deal with the difficult policy question of dealing with rising powers prepared to challenge the statusquo. It has just about every contingency covered. "For my part Australians may be able to defend our nation because of our geographic good luck. If not, what steps have been taken to change our posture? From Taiwan, the PLA could also pivot south, effectively enveloping the Philippines and giving Beijing easier access to the resource-rich Benham Rise, Dr Davis writes. It has additional radars and air defence weapons on outposts in the South China Sea, which extend its IADS zone out even further, although these latter systems can be destroyed by the US. And the West may not be able to do much about it. The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to Chinas party-state. Please try again later. There are still hundreds of diplomats and politicians around the world including in Canberra working openly and behind the scenes to ensuretensions between China and the US never escalate into war. But the definition of ancestral territory appears to be changing rapidly. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Behm says the impact on Australia of a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war this country has participated in since World War II. Beijings response was prompt and predictable. Part 2. Despite this, U.S. military planners would prefer to fight a conventional war. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. "There would also be a possibility of exceptionalism if most other countries in Asia did not get involved. "As a continental power, China has a distinct preference for land warfare. Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. "China's IADS includes an extensive early warning radar network, fighter aircraft, and a variety of surface to air missile (SAM) systems. What War with China Would Look Like, Part 2, will be published on Tuesdayand feature interviews with Allan Behm,former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department, and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. Certainly not in the six-to-eight minutes it could take a DF-11 A rocket to cross the 130 kilometre-wide Taiwan Strait to its target. "As I see the decision for the invasion of Iraq I think it was made by the Prime Minister. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. Modern aircraft particularly the F-35 stealth fighters in Australias arsenal need tender loving care. Show map. "When the US closed down Bagram airbase in Afghanistan the Afghan Army collapsed. But precision bombing requires the military to have access to space, where orbiting satellites help guide munitions. The head of Russian mercenary group Wagner says his forces have practically encircled the crucial city of Bakhmut. "Ultimately, I do not see how America could inflict enough damage on China to force Beijing to concede over Taiwan, without using nuclear weapons. The People's Liberation Army is capable of "substantially subduing" the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. What would war with China look like for Australia? To use the words of one leading military analyst, Australia could find itself "sleepwalking" into a war with China. Taiwan cannot be resupplied by land. As with the Gulf War in 2003, Washington is always keen to enlist as many countries as possible to spread the cost and political risk. Rockets figure heavily in Beijings arsenal. Australia is underperforming and leaving itself wide open as longstanding fears look set to come true. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. Principles matter, he writes. "The scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan is often considered the catalyst but even in this case the reasons for, and management of, the breakdown in China-Taiwan relations in the lead up would be critical. These are all Cold War allies of the US, but they have not had to think about war in the region since the 1970s. But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? "But the prospect of war with China raises very different possibilities including for example, the significant likelihood that aircraft, ships and submarines we committed would be destroyed, with the potential for very high casualties among the crews. Chinas new Type-055 destroyers can carry 112 large missiles. Chinas airfields, naval ports and missile bases are all nearby. I think the US now accepts it may lose a conflict at least at the conventional level with China.. Rebuilding them could take years. "Assuming that China was eventually able to control the Taiwan Strait, it would deploy land forces to Taiwan, both to subdue/destroy the Taiwanese army, any US or allied ground forces that might be in Taiwan, and then to occupy the country.". Chris Zappone and Eryk Bagshaw June 30, 2021 China-US superpower showdown: military strength Matthew Absalom-Wong China is also developing the capabilities needed to support military operations at range, said Nouwens, suggesting they could attack across large distances. "Even in Australia, with our record of setting up the basics of a rules-based order, governments have sometimes overlooked the provisions of the rules-based order, when it does not suit them. The map below, compiled from data provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is the most accurate nuclear attack map and fallout demonstration available for 2023: (Image courtesy of FEMA and Halcyon Maps) The fallout would rapidly spread, turning targeted cities into whole affected regions. The only way we can possibly win such a war is to build a coalition similar to NATO. While most members voted in favor of the six U.N. General Assembly resolutions passed since last . "One can imagine the sociological fracture in Australia with funerals, commemorations, attacks on Australians of Chinese descent, the curtailing of any progressive economic reconstruction agenda for Australia.". Today, Chinas military spending is the second-highest in the world after the United States and continues to rise. "That is why I think it would be a mistake for America, or Australia, to go to war with China over Taiwan.". War over Taiwan would be disastrous, Australias chief of defence General Angus Campbell told a recent gathering. The attrition model appears to be deeply ingrained in the US approach to land warfare. A blockade, he says, would mean that 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. The US would be challenged by a powerful Chinese fleet in the region. "Firepower strikes described above would be accompanied by cyber operations to ensure information is blocked as well. China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. It would be relatively easy for China to establish a credible air and sea exclusion zone around Taiwan, and thereby put immense pressure on the Taiwanese to accept Beijings terms. "A big unknown is whether Japan would grant expanded rights to the US to use bases located on its territory, without itself joining the combat directly unless its territory is attacked. everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. In its consequences, it would be profoundly and devastatingly different. Admiral Chris Barrie says that with all the "overblown rhetoric" about the possibility of war against China he thinks there is a danger of forgetting that war should only ever be taken as the last means of resolving insurmountable differences between nation states. Over the past decade, China has increasingly viewed the United States as mired in political and social crises. Professor Clinton Fernandesis a former intelligence officer in the Australian military and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. Western submarines will play a role in restraining Chinas surface fleet. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/opinion/a-war-with-china-would-reach-deep-into-american-society.html, more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles, worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force, the East is rising while the West is declining. It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. They would be forced to operate as part of a much greater allied unit. If Australians are hearing the 'beating drums' of war, as Minister Mike Pezzullo put it, is it because Scott Morrison's Coalition government thinks banging on about China will be a winning . Stavros Atlamazoglou. These flew out of Japan and down the east coast of Taiwan to operate near the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group and the Chinese Liaoning. "Were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best scenario one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. Vietnam and Iraq were illegal wars, with the US Administration(s) lying to their citizens and their allies about the strategic necessity and the morality of the use of armed force. Confronting as that would be, perhaps more confronting is something many people do not realise: such a decision would not require any consultation in parliament. Wherever they start, they finish only when one side decides to give up. "Relatively, we are a small country today and becoming even smaller in comparison to the company we keep. But there's also bad news ahead. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. Our biggest customer is now also viewed as our biggest threat andChina's muscle-flexing around Taiwan last week only strengthened the view that a war involving Taiwan is a genuine possibility. RELATED: It will be bloody: Threat to China. Answer (1 of 34): I must assume Brian Greenhow is joking, but if he is not I must point out that wars aren't won by population numbers or imaginary 'allies', but by real Alliances, either historical or by treaty, and by technology, military hardware, political maneuvers, industry and money, lots . "Australia has always had a fascination about China, going well back in our history to pre-federation days. Taiwan is much closer to China than the United States. Despite decades of warnings, our fuel refineries continue to close. Modern warships carry only a limited number of weapons. Beijing has already put its assets in place. Defeat the affirmative expeditionary purpose of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). They may withhold their offensive cyber power to prevent the US learning their operations. With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? Would Japan? "Specifically, China would probably favour four principal avenues for marginalising or defeating Australia. Who would win in a hypothetical battle between China and Japan? The feud over the reigns of global influence is playing out in Southeast Asia. He says Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology:to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own". "As Carl von Clausewitz noted [in his book On War], defence is the stronger form of war.
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